03 March 2004
Doc. nº 4
ESTANCIAS DE PROFESORES E INVESTIGADORES EXTRANJEROS EN RÉGIMEN DE AÑO SABÁTICO EN ESPAÑA
INFORME CIENTÍFICO DE LA ACTIVIDAD DESARROLLADA
Espacio para etiqueta identificativa
Organismo donde se ha realizado la estancia: Universitat de les Illes Balears
Título del proyecto de investigación:
Similitudes y diferencias entre el Mediterraneo occidental y central en la estructura y mecanismos de desarrollo de ciclones que producen situaciones de lluvias torrenciales (SAB2002-0084)
Fechas en las que se ha realizado el trabajo desde 7/11/03 hasta 3/3/04
Descripción de la actividad realizada, resultados y objetivos conseguidos (*):
This work began with Dr. Doswell's arrival on 7 November. Project-related work includes several different components, to be enumerated below:
1. The research directly described by the title of the project has begun but is not completed, as of the time of Dr. Doswell's departure from Spain. In collaboration with Dr. Romualdo Romero and Lluis Fita (both from UIB), the technique for studying thesimilarities and differences between cyclones within the Mediterranean includes two major components: (a) a potential vorticity (PV) inversion technique has been applied to gridded "reanalysis" data obtained for 12 major cyclone cases from the MEDEX list of important events, (b) a factor separation method is applied to evaluate the importance of physical processes during the evolution of the cyclones. Using this scheme, PV anomalies at upper and lower levels are identified and tracked during the life cycle of the cyclones, from formation through maturity and into dissipation. Then, the factor separation scheme is used to determine the contributions from upper and lower PV anomalies, as well as such physical processes as orographic forcing and latent heat release. Cases from around the Mediterranean have been included. Early results suggest that for the strong synoptic-scale cyclones studied, the diabatic contribution is typically small. Hence, it is likely that we will modify the study to focus on the effects of orography and its interaction with PV anomalies, rather than diabatic processes.
The diagnosis of our results is underway and will continue via electronic communcation when Dr. Doswell returns to the United States. It is anticipated that early results of this work will be presented at a scientific conference and eventually be submitted for publication in a refereed journal. The contribution of support for this project will be acknowledged in any presentation or publication.
For the following, these studies are not directly covered withn the original project objectives, but represent promising research lines that Dr. Doswell has been pursuing while in Spain.
2. Another related research project begun by Dr. Doswell while in Spain has been a study of the climatology of various parameters associated with severe convective storms. The work is in collaboration with Dr. Romualdo Romero This involves using the reanalysis data base from ERA40 that covers the years 1971 to 2000. Whereas the occurrence of severe convective storms in Europe is, and has been, somewhat erratic and sporadic, the real climatology of severe convection is surely much more substantial than existing occurrence records would indicate. Thus, it is anticipated that by using an appropriate set of parameters that are recognised as relevant to severe convective storms, it should be possible to create a "synthetic climatology" of the occurrence frequencies by considering the time and space distributions of where these parameters become favorable for severe convective storms. This work has begun - coding of the programs to deduce the parameter climatologies from the data is underway and preliminary calculations are proceeding. It is expected that this work will be sufficiently advanced to present preliminary results at the European Conference on Severe Storms in Leon, Espana in November 2004. Eventually, it is anticipated that the final results will be written up for publication in a refereed journal. The contribution of support for this project will be acknowledged in any presentation or publication.
3. Another related research project begun by Dr. Doswell while in Spain, in collaboration with Dr. Romualdo Romero (UIB) and Miguel Gaya (INM, Palma de Mallorca) is the collection of existing reports of significant tornadoes in Europe during the period 1971 to 2000. This study is an important adjunct project to that previously mentioned as No. 2 (above). We will use this to test the appropriateness of the parameters selected for the synthetic climatology. Thus, this can be considered to be a companion study to No. 2, but it also is an important contribution in its own right to the climatology of severe convection in Europe. It is expected that this work will be sufficiently advanced to present preliminary results at the European Conference on Severe Storms in Leon, Spain in November 2004. Eventually, it is anticipated that the final results will be written up for publication in a refereed journal. The contribution of support for this project will be acknowledged in any presentation or publication.
4. A research project begun by Dr. Doswell during his stay in Spain considers issues related to the cognitive psychology of weather forecasting by humans. Considerable study and effort has been expended by national weather services around the world to improve the accuracy and skill of objective forecasting methods. However, a comparable investment of resources into the improvement of forecasting by humans has never been made. A review of the literature on cognitive psychology suggests that considerable improvement is possible, but it will require multidisciplinary research. A paper describing the situation has been prepared during Dr. Doswell's stay in Espana and has been submitted to the journal "Weather and Forecasting", published by the American Meteorological Society. Partial support from the Spanish Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporte will be acknowledged if the paper is accepted and published.
5. A special course at UIB was taught (in English) by Dr. Doswell, entitled: "Severe weather impacts on society" (Codi: 2559). Eighteen students were enrolled in the course, that met in a classroom at UIB for two hours, one day per week, from 11 November to 22 January. The lecture notes were made available from the UIB "METEOROLOGIA"Website. Students were required to do a research project on some aspect of severe weather's societal impacts in Europe - in Spain, if they wished. Then, the students were asked to write a report on their project, in English. This report was graded and that formed the basis for student grades in the course. Calificaciones : Excelente - 4, Notable - 4, Aprobado - 3, Suspenso - 1, No presentado - 6.